Blink and You'll Miss It: N.L. Cy Young Race Update

It looks like this year the fun of watching a National League pennant race is not to be. Most of the divisions are already locked up and playoff positioning is all but decided. The Phillies have a firm 11 game lead over the Braves and have lowered their magic number to win the division to 9 and just 3 to make the playoffs. The Brewers have a 7 game lead over the Cardinals and the Diamondbacks have built an 8.5 game lead over the World Champion SF Giants. The Braves also lead St. Louis by 6.5 and San Fran by 8.5 in the N.L. Wildcard Race. So, needless to say it looks like the Phillies, Braves, Diamondbacks and Brewers will be the four teams representing the National League in the playoffs.

Although there is no pennant races to really be won in September, at this point only catastrophic collapses can make teams lose the pennant, there is still a race to be followed and this race is closer than a pennant race could ever be. The N.L. Cy Young is up for grabs and since my last Cy Young post, four guys have emerged from the pack to vie for pitching's greatest honor.


1. Ian Kennedy (Diamondbacks)
The last time I posted, Kennedy was ranked 4th in my Cy Young balloting. His record of 17-4 was tied with Kennedy for most wins and he had the best winning percentage. Kennedy also had 161 strikeouts and an ERA of 3.03. Since that time, Kennedy has only gotten better. He bettered record and winning percentage by picking up two more wins and no losses. His current record of 19-4 is the best record and the most wins in the N.L. He is still 5th in strikeouts with 178 but by lowering his ERA to 2.90, it has moved him up to the 9th best ERA in the League. He is also 7th in WHIP with 1.11. Now these numbers aren't jaw-dropping nor do they really stand so far above and beyond the rest that I would just hand him the Cy Young. He has been consistent all season however never having a month below .500 and the Diamondbacks have won about 75% of his starts going 22-8. Kennedy has won eight of his last ten starts going 8-1 with a ND and the Diamondbacks have won all but one of these starts, the one against the Phillies was the only loss in Kennedy's last ten starts. If he keeps up at this pace he will be the Cy Young. If you take him off of the Diamondbacks they are not winning the N.L. West and that is why Kennedy is the pitching MVP and the Cy Young for 2011.

2. Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)
Kershaw has continued to have solid performances since the last time I blogged about the Cy. He remains in 2nd place in my voting for that reason. Kershaw increased his 2nd best record to 18-5 and 2nd best win percentage to 78%. His strikeout numbers are still tops in the N.L. and his 2nd best ERA is now the league leading ERA at 2.36. He is still second in WHIP which he lowered from 1.02 to 1.00 and he is third in complete games with five. Although I previously had Halladay ranked above Kershaw because of postseason implications and team win-loss record in starts, Kershaw has moved above him because the once miniscule parity in stats has increased. Kershaw, 1st in strikeouts and ERA, is only one win behind Kennedy from possessing the pitching triple crown. Despite the fact that his Dodgers are not going anywhere this season, if Kershaw wins the triple crown, I have to believe that the Cy Young will easily go to him.



                                                                                    3. Cliff Lee (Phillies)
Lee just like Kershaw is staying put in his ranking where he was last time. No one will disagree that Lee has been dominant at points of this year, in fact he added another complete game shut out in his first start in September, but the Cy Young winner is the most dominant pitcher in the league for the whole season. While guys like Kershaw and Kennedy no not have sub .500 pitching months, Lee has two of them, in May and July. His two undefeated months are definitely something to marvel at and it has won him two pitcher of the month awards but in the Cy Young voting I don't think it will be enough. Lee has improved his stats however since I last posted. His 6th best ERA of 2.59 is now at 2.47 and is good enough for 4th best. His win total is still 4th best but his WHIP of 1.03 is now 3rd best in the league. I still believe that Lee's inconsistencies will cost him but he has definitely pitched himself into the conversation. The guy has been explosive and if he does put together another 5-0, below 1.00 ERA with a few complete game shut outs month, well then all bets are off and he could steal this out from any of the top guys.

4. Roy Halladay (Phillies)
Last but not least is the Phillies ace. Halladay experienced the most drastic change in my voting since last time going from first to last but there is a reason for it. The current Cy Young is having a good, solid year as ace of the Phillie staff but he doesn't have anything that separates him from the pack. Halladay has no perfect game this year, may not reach 20 wins and the rest of him numbers are only second and third best. There is no glaring stat that says, give him the Cy Young. Once again, Halladay has been a horse by throwing over 200 innings for the Phils. His 17 wins and 17-5 record is still good enough for third and his 7 complete games is still tops in the league. His WHIP of 1.05 is 4th best and his strikeouts which are over 200 for the fifth consecutive year are 3rd best. His ERA which he lowered to 2.44 is also 3rd best.

For Halladay however there are two things going against him. One is that he is performing at the level that is expected of him. His solid year has been great for the Phils but as a defending Cy Young who last year pitched a perfect game and a no-hitter, much has been expected. No one expected Kennedy or Kershaw to have the years they are having and no one expected Lee to record two 5-0 months. It is the price of being good sometimes because when you are off your game even a little it is considered failing. Halladay has been expected to be that Cy Young again and this year, simply put, he has just been out pitched.

Also going against Halladay is the fact that he may not even be the best pitcher on his team. If you compare Lee and Halladay, they are so close in stats that there really is no number one ace on the Phillies this year. For the Cy Young, it is impossible to be baseball's best pitcher if you aren't even your team's best pitcher.

Now with four starts remaining, anything and I mean anything could happen. Kennedy could win the rest of his starts and finish 23-4. Kershaw could win 20 games but lower his ERA to 2.20. Lee could throw another 5-0 month and even Halladay could win if he goes 21-5 but continues to improve on his strikeouts, ERA and league leading strikeout to walk ratio.

This race will go down to the wire and it will certainly be a good one to watch for baseball enthusiasts everywhere!