I recently published an article on B/R about the keys for both the Phillies and Cardinals. I examined what both teams would need to do in order to win the NLDS. For those who haven't seen the article, here is the link: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/872669-2011-mlb-playoffs-previewing-the-keys-for-the-phillies-vs-cardinals-nlds
For those who have seen it, here is the follow up.
Key 1: Battle of the Bats: Ryan Howard vs. Albert Pujols
For this key I surmised that which ever big slugger was able to carry the team on his back would be the team who would win the series. So far that is pretty spot on. Pujols only recorded one hit in the game and that was after Roy Halladay had already the left the game. He was 1-3 on the day with 1 BB. Howard's line went a little differently. Howard was also 1-3 with a walk but he added a HR, a run scored, four RBI and most importantly no strikeouts. When the Phillies were down 3-1, Howard came to the late representing the go ahead run and he smacked one deep into the seats and gave the Phillies the lead. Howard stepped up but Pujols stayed in the shadows and this shows in the Phillies leading the series 1-0.
Key 2: Hunter Pence and the Houston Astros Equation
One half of the Astros equation was in play tonight and that was Pence. The former Astro did not disappoint in his postseason debut. Pence went 2-5 with 2 runs scored and 2 RBI. His knowledge of Cardinals pitching may or may not have helped him to this mark but what is certain that Pence's production from the three hole certainly helped the Phillies, even though Pence's RBIs were runs 10 and 11.
Key 3: Will the Injured Matt Holliday Play?
Answer: No. Result: Cardinals lost.
Key 4: The Phillies Pitching Rotation: Match ups, match ups, match ups
Today pitted Halladay against Kyle Lohse. At first it looked like the Cardinals were actually going to take this match up. They scored a three run home run off of Halladay early and Lohse didn't allow an earned run until the 6th. That was the break out inning however for the Phillies offense. They managed to tag Lohse with six runs. Halladay on the other hand settled down after his first inning. He turned on a new gear and retired 21 in a row before leaving the game after eight when the Phillies had an 11-3 lead. Clearly the Phillies took advantage of this match up. 1-0 Phillies with Cliff Lee vs. Chris Carpenter tomorrow. Match up will be key once again.
Key 5: It Comes Down to Game One
I said that the key to this series was winning game one. The Phillies won game one. Let's see if they win the series.
Key 6: Cardinals: Building on Momentum and Regular Season Success Against Phillies
This is what the Cardinals had to do and in game one they didn't do it. Not only did they lose any momentum they had from their amazing September, they practically gave it all to the Phillies. Last time Lohse and Halladay matched up the Cardinals won, this time it went quite the opposite.The Cardinals may have won the season series against the Phils but in two of the three games the Phils won they scored double digit runs. They did this again tonight and almost effectively deflated any confidence and momentum the Cardinals had.
Key 7: The Perfect Bullpen Equation Does Not Exist for the Phillies
This is true and it was on display tonight. Michael Stutes is still not the same pitcher he was before the All Star Break and this showed in his pitching line tonight: 3 ER, 3 H and 1 BB in 1/3 of an inning. Luckily for the Phillies they were up 11-3 before he threw a pitch and his outing didn't really matter. The lack of bullpen consistency though is still something to watch for and in close games this could cost the Phillies dearly.
Key 8: Jimmy Rollins: Final Audition for the Phillies to Re-sign Him
Jimmy Rollins has a big off season ahead of him and as a result I predicted that he would have a good postseason and that from the top of the line up this would be key to the Phillies success. 2-4 with three runs scored is certainly what the Phillies wanted from the top of the line up and he delivered tonight. Rollins got on base to start the 6th inning and made it possible for Howard to hit a three run bomb.
Key 9: Home Field Advantage and the Fan Factor
The Phillies won this one easily. At first after the Cardinals took the early lead the fans were out of it. But when the Phillies began to mount their rally, the fans and their waving white towels were right back in it. I like to believe that the fans were a big part of why the Phillies won game one. Also, the Cardinals misplayed some balls. The Phillies didn't. Home field advantage mattered and for the Phillies it helped them to a 1-0 lead.
Key 10: Best Rotation vs. Best Offense: Does Pitching Really Win Championships?
Tonight the Phillies pitching did outmaneuver the Cardinals offense. After an early 3-0 lead given by a Lance Berkman HR, the Cardinals only got one more hit when Halladay was pitching. He kept the Cardinals hitters at bay and retired 21 in a row after giving up his third hit to the team, a number they would stay at until Halladay left the game after the 8th. I said that for the Phillies to win they would probably not have to score more than three runs. Doc only gave up three. So tonight, best rotation was that much better than the best offense.
Looking at the keys, I'm realizing that the Phillies did everything they needed to do to win and the Cardinals didn't do any of the things they needed. It is no wonder why the Phillies have a 1-0 NLDS lead.
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