As the calendar turns from summer to fall, the season of football is upon us. Most Americans are preparing their tailgates, ironing their jerseys and making sure the picture in picture on their tv is working. Their minds are on football. This fan's mind however isn't quite in football mode yet. How could it be with baseball not even being close to over yet? There is nothing in all of sports like watching a closely contested pennant race and this year we are in for a treat. Anything can happen in these races and anyone can come out on top. In addition to watching the pennant race, I will be tuning in to the NL Cy Young race. Just like the pennant races in most division, this race is close and getting closer by the game. Five pitchers, five contenders remain at the top of the list and anyone of these guys could take home the trophy. From two guys who are going for their second cy in Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay of the Phillies to three others who have yet to taste pitching greatness in young Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers, Ian Kennedy of the Diamondbacks and Johnny Cueto of the Reds, this award is up for grabs. With each start no one pitcher is distancing himself from the other and as things in baseball normally do, this one is going to come down to the wire.
In order to figure out who will take home baseball's coveted award, we first have to look at the candidates that are vying for it. Let's take a look at one of Philadelphia's boys, Cliff Lee. In order to look at Lee's chances I think it is best to look at his year by month. In April, Lee was 2-2 in five starts with a complete game shut out. He gave up 30 hits and 4 HRs in 32.1 innings pitched. He finished April with a 4.18 ERA. In May Lee had seven outings, finishing with a 2-3 record and a 3.78 ERA. June for Lee was one for the record books. He was 5-0 in 5 starts ending the month on a 30+ scoreless inning streak and finishing with an ERA of 0.21, having given up only 1 earned run in the month. Lee also pitched three consecutive CG SOs in June. In July, Lee went 1-2 in 5 starts and had an ERA of 4.91. August again saw Lee with amazing success as he finished the month 5-0 with a 0.45 ERA in which he added another CG SO and only gave up 2 total earned runs.
The reason why we have to look at Cliff Lee month by month because in my opinion that is what is going to keep him from winning the Cy Young. If the race was purely based on second half stats, Lee would win in a landslide but that isn't the case. Although Lee put up phenomenal numbers in June and August is is his mediocre other months which in my opinion will keep him from winning his second Cy Young. Lee currently has a 2.59 ERA which is good enough for 6th best. His win total is 4th best and his strikeouts are 2nd best. His WHIP is 4th best. Looking at all of these stats Lee is a legitamate Cy Young candidate but in the end I have him finishing 3rd because of his early season struggles.
Two other players who are considered wildcards mostly because their names are unrecognizable are Johnny Cueto and Ian Kennedy. Cueto is 9-5 which ranks him lower than top ten in wins which is never a good thing from a cy young candidate. His WHIP of 1.06 is good enough for 5th best and his ERA of 2.05 is the tops in the league. Cueto however has 7 less starts than his competitors and in the end that will keep him from winnig. His stats are good but with less innings pitched and less wins, Cueto will maybe finish in the top five.
Then there is Kennedy. Kennedy is 17-4 which is tied for the most wins but is the best win/loss ratio in the league. His 161 strikouts is good enough for 5th best but his ERA is only 10th best at 3.03. Kennedy is having a spectacular season for the surging Diamondbacks but his high ERA will keep him from the Cy Young. Kennedy will finish 4th in the final voting.
With only two guys left, I have saved the strongest for last. What is remarkable about Halladay and Kershaw the two remaingi competitors is how eerily close all of their stats really are. Halladay's 16-5 record is good enough for 3rd best behind Kershaw's second best 17-5. Kershaw has one more start than Halladay and is the NL's leader in strikeouts. Second to Kershaw in strikeouts is Halladay with 21 less. Halladay's WHIP of 1.04 and ERA of 2.47 is third best behind Kershaw's second best WHIP of 1.02 and ERA of 2.45. Halladay's remarkable league leading 25 walks is half of Kershaws's but Kershaw's 152 hits given up is 27 less than Halladay's. Kershaw has pitched 2 innings more than Halladay but both have pitched 190+ innings which is good enough for first and second in the league. And you guessed it, Kershaw's 59 runs given up is bested by Halladay's 57. Both men have given up 54 earned runs. These numbers are literally so close that it is impossible to use them to determine the winner. Because of this, additional pitching stats have to be looked at and here is where I beleive Kershaw has the slight edge. Halladay's 7 complete games is best in the league but is only 2 better than Kershaw who also has 2 more shut outs than Halladay. Both of them have 21 quality starts. I would give the slight edge to Kershaw in a few categories but I still have to go with Halladay to win the Cy Young for the secod year in a row.
Halladay may be slightly worse than Kershaw in stats but for me it came down to two that may matter the most. The Phillies are 21-6 in games that Halladay has started this year, at one point winning ten of his starts in a row. The Dodgers are 19-9 in Kershaw's starts. This stat is important because it shows Halladay's ability to keep his team in the game and it has shown in the difference between the Phillies and Dodgers records. Finally, although it is said that they do not look at postseason stats, I think that the fact that Halladay will be leading the Phillies to the postseason and that Kershaw's Dodgers will be staying home will hurt Kershaw in the end. So in probably what will be one of the closest decisions in Cy Young history, Halladay will barely edge out Clayton Kershaw to win the 2011 NL Cy Young Award. However, with each guy having five more starts on the year anything can change and anything can happen.
Good luck to the Doc who can start to distance himself with a good pitching performance tomorrow!
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